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Boris will be more President than Prime Minister.

The ERG are toast.

The Conservative Party, as a governing party, are an irrelevance.

The appointments Johnson has already announced indicate a Vote Leave operation at Number 10. A number of them are not Conservative Party members. Dominic Cummings is a very clear signal that the kind of things that held May hostage as PM - leaks, threats, undermining, game-playing - where the backbench Brexiters constantly warned she would destroy the party if she did not do what they wanted isn't going to work anymore. Cummings is not a Tory member, so what does he care?

From May's precendent as PM, we can see that Number 10 non-elected staff - as with Nick Timothy - wield far more power than even Cabinet Ministers. He wrote the Four Red Lines Speech, which Hammond, as Chancellor, was not aware of before she delivered it. He wrote the Conservative Party Manifesto 2017, which MPs saw for the first time when it was published a fortnight into the GE campaign. Both co-Chiefs of Staff attended major international events like Davos, where reportedly Timothy alienated China and India as potential trading partners, and controlled access to May. The non-elected Number 10 Johnson staff will rank way above Tory MPs and have no conflicting loyalties to the Conservative Parliamentary Party.

May passed the EU Withdrawal Act with its juicy extensive statutory powers. If 'a Minister of the Crown wishes to make such provisions as that Minister of the Crown considers appropriate' then a Minister of the Crown can do just that. Parliament hardly sat during May's tenure, they will sit even less through Boris'.

During May's time, prorogation, packing the Lords, were discussed. There were court cases like Gina Miller's, a contempt of Parliament ruling over the release of the DexEU sectoral analyses. A Johnson executive would not acknowledge, pause for clarification or comply with any motion in the Commons to produce information. It would be move fast and break things vs private citizens taking the Government to court, with the side-serving of the 'politically motivated judges' type outrage every time. Packing the Lords, prorogation, any tactic available is fair game.

That said, by choosing Cummings, I think we are very unlikely to have a No-Deal crash out situation. A further extension by another name that says we've left when we haven't really, like 'standstill' or 'temporary FTA'. We'll find out that 31st October 2019 as a 'do or die' has actually been delivered as promised by Johnson. Because we'll be told that repeatedly.

'But we haven't left?' We have.

'Do or die,you said?' We have left the EU.

'This isn't leaving?' We left the EU on the 31st of October, as promised.

'You lied about leaving on the 31st?' If anything, the PM underestimated how much we would leave by. That figure of 350 million EU per leavings should actually have been 379 million...

etc ...

An incoming Vote Leave Government, rather than a new Conservative Government, can disown the previous one rather more easily. They go in, spend a few weeks sucking their teeth, and proclaim a right mess. Leaving without a deal on the 31st should have been fine, but we have all been misled and no proper preparation has been made. A hard reset is required and it's all May's fault.

Might the ERG be cross? Well, yes, but that's what happens when you sign up to a campaign which doesn't commit to details and then (for some reason) actively back up your candidate's tactical avoidance of scrutiny. There were an awful lot of combinations within Johnson's word salad Brexit promises, so presumably they knew that he would end up screwing over some of the colleagues that put him through to the membership. Which they couldn't have minded. It just didn't occur to them that the All Mighty Powerful ERG might get played. And now Boris has control over MP candidate selection and they have no leverage. Oh no.

The media aren't all that interested in them anymore. It's like September 2018 and the 'where's your plan then?' when they were treated as a laughing stock and 'flying tax inspectators'. Iain Duncan Smith can cancel his plans to be Deputy PM. The Vote Leavers hold the lot of them in contempt. I doubt they knew Boris would bring in Cummings when they backed him. I'd be surprised if Gavin Williamson knew as they have history also and he had better be telling the truth about the Huawei leak.

Would the ERG collapse the Boris Government? I don't think so. The possibility of leaving with a deal should keep the One Nation Tories from doing it either. Besides they will be very little put to Parliament. For both factions, the blame apportioned to May can always be spread a little further. Pre-Raab DexEU Ministers are particularly vulnerable. When David Davis released the sectoral analyses it effectively demonstrated that he had no idea what No Deal meant at the time he was threatening it. He also reacted very badly to the EU taking it seriously, to the point of pontificating about legal action. It would not be difficult to make the case that they were not prevented from preparing by May, but that they didn't put the work in regardless.

I do wonder if we'll have a Referendum in the near future.

A Referendum on the ECHR.

This is something that Cummings has threatened should he be in a position to bring one about. It's something May wanted in her 2017 Manifesto, so she'd probably back leaving and the Johnson Government position. It would be shiny and distracting and could be sold as essential to a proper Brexit, as if it would solve the Irish Border problem (it wouldn't). Cue sovereignty arguments, terrorists ad their cats, thwarting Brexit etc .. It would keep us all busy whilst the new regime does whatever they want to Westminster.

The main difference from May to Johnson then could well be a lack of consideration for the future of the Conservative Party. Which on the plus side is a liberation from factions of Tory MPs holding their PM hostage to the party interest. However, a more President than PM in Number 10, means less Parliamentary democracy and representation of the British public through their constituency elected MP. Power will be further concentrated amongst those we don't elect, but are personally chosen by the PM, whose only loyalty is to that individual

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